Prognoses

We forecast the future for you, but we also tell you frankly what the insecurities are. How do we do this? We make use of history-based data, represent behavioural patterns in a model, and estimate the unknown parameters with special techniques. Using the model with the parameter estimates, we then proceed to prepare a justified forecast of the future.

The parameter estimates also help us understand the accuracies and inaccuracies involved, which gives us an idea of the reliability of the prognosis. Examples of CentERdata research projects carried out according to this model include:

• What are the developments in labour market shortages for teachers?
• What are the consequences of abolishing the Specifieke Afdrachtskorting (SPAK): changes in family allowance schemes, minimum wages, or a higher income tax threshold?