Results

Figure 3: Purchasing plans (chance of a significant purchase in the coming 12 months)

Purchasing plans for durable goods are hardly increasing, but neither are they declining further (Figure 3). Compared to the previous quarter, Dutch citizens assess the probability of purchasing a house (home interior) and appliances (washing machine, television, etc.) somewhat higher. Still, compared to one year ago, the purchasing plans are still at a lower level. Purchasing intentions and actual purchases follow similar patterns.   That Dutch citizens, despite gloomier feelings about their financial future, nevertheless plan to spend a bit more, may possibly be due to the fact that they have been postponing quite a few purchases over the course of the past year. Nevertheless, there is a clear correlation between the Ecomotion-index and purchasing plans: people that score low on the index have fewer purchasing plans, and vice versa. This correlation is clearest with regard to purchasing home interior items and holidays. As such, the decline of the Ecomotion-index can be considered a negative signal for domestic consumption.

There are substantial differences in the economic emotions of different generations of Dutch citizens. Young Dutch people until 35 years have the most positive outlook on their financial future. The group between 45 and 54 has the gloomiest outlook, with the greatest amount of negative emotions of all age groups. The group of 65 and over takes an intermediate position between youngsters on the one hand, and the mid-group of between 35 and 64 years on the other. Further, the emotions of senior citizens have become more positive compared to six months ago, while all other age groups have become more negative. A possible explanation for the unusual curve for citizens aged 65 and over is that elderly persons are the least materialistic, attaching least value to property and luxury. They may therefore feel less affected emotionally by pending changes in government policy and a possible decline in income.

Differences between Dutch people in their emotions regarding their financial future is also related to their educational background (Figure 5). The differences between educational groups are even more pronounced than between age groups. People with higher qualifications clearly score better than the rest. People with high-level secondary education (often young people still studying) take an intermediate position between highly qualified people on the one hand, and people with a vocational or elementary school qualification on the other. Compared to the previous quarter we see a decline in the index for people with higher education qualifications.

Figure 6 displays two further economic situational indicators: - The perceived probability of job loss over the coming 12 months, which increased slightly in the last quarter from 14.5% to 15.0%. - The percentage of Dutch citizens that received financial support from their direct environment in the last three months, equal to at least one week's wages; this percentage also increased in the last quarter, from 6.1% to 7.8%. Both indicators show that Dutch households do not perceive any signs of economic recovery.