Labour market

The Mimosa labour market model

Structural micro-simulation model of the Dutch labour market
Contact: Jan Nelissen

The current situation in labour market research commonly involves the launch of ad hoc research projects for each separate labour market, policy evaluation, or policy preparation issue. Owing to the inherent limitations of such research projects, which often need to be conducted under pressure of time, these generally accomplish rather low ambition levels. This led CentER Applied Research, the Organization for Strategic Labour Market Research (OSA), and the Council for Work and Income (RWI) to design and construct an integrated model for the Dutch labour market. This model will be instrumental in taking labour market research in the Netherlands to the next level. Stichting Instituut GAK is a major financier of this research project, which was completed in 2004.

The labour market model that was developed is a model at the micro-level (the personal level), involving a wide range of individual transitions on the labour market, such as employment, unemployment, disability, pensions, training, and health care. The model focuses on the individual’s participation decision, taking into account individual characteristics, household characteristics, legislation and regulations, and economic fluctuations. The model is specifically geared towards the labour market, focusing on individuals in relation with their environment. As such, it differs entirely from models like those used by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). In fact, by helping us understand why certain developments take place, it is a welcome addition to those models.

The prototype has been called Micro-Model for Strategic Labour Market Research (Mimosa). Mimosa is a valuable first step towards an integrated labour market model. Our aim is to develop Mimosa over the next few years into a versatile and high-quality instrument that will allow us to make rapid and well-founded assessments of policy proposals and policy effects in the wide field of labour market issues.

Reports

• Naar een integraal micro-model voor arbeidsmarktbeleid. Verslag van de Mimosa pilotstudy (Towards an integrated micro-model for labour market policy. Report of the Mimosa pilot study.)
• Nelissen, J.H.M., P.F. Fontein and A.H.O. van Soest (2005) The impact of various policy measures on employment in the Netherlands, The Japanese Journal of Social Security Policy, Vol. 4 (1), p. 17-32. 

MIRROR: Labour market estimates for Primary Education, Secondary Education, and Vocational/Adult Education

A micro-simulation model for the labour market of teachers in primary and secondary education

Contact: Peter Fontein

On behalf of the Education Ministry (OCW), CentERdata is involved in formulating labour market estimates for Primary Education, Secondary Education, and Vocational/Adult Education, in which we collaborate with QDelft and Ecorys. These labour market estimates aim to give us a grasp of staff supply figures in the above-mentioned educational sectors over a 10-15-year period, involving teachers, school governors, auxiliary teaching staff, and other staff. To this purpose, CentERdata researchers developed a micro-simulation model in 2002, called the Micro-simulation Calculation Model for Regional Education Estimates (MIRROR). With the aid of this technique, we can make optimum use of the available data. A major advantage of micro-simulation, moreover, is that it allows pronouncements to be made on every desired aggregative level, not only at the level of regions, but also at the level of sub-regions, of the governing bodies of the larger primary schools, and even of medium-sized secondary schools. This, of course, greatly expands the model’s range of application.

In 2005, MIRROR was improved with a financial component, allowing wage costs to be modelled at the personal level in very great detail. This facilitates us to outline the financial consequences of a greying population as well as any possible shortages in the above-mentioned education sectors. This financial module, for example, has given us a better idea of the financial consequences of several proposals made by Education Minister Plasterk in response to the report produced by the Rinnooy Kan Commission, involving the curtailment of salary scales (fewer increments) and a different staffing structure.

• Fontein, P., J. Nelissen and K. de Vos (2002), Model Microsimulatie Primair en Voortgezet Onderwijs, Ministerie van OCenW / CentER Applied Research.
• De toekomstige arbeidsmarkt voor onderwijspersoneel tot 2015, Arbeidsmarktprognoses voor primair onderwijs, voortgezet onderwijs en bve-sector, CentERdata, ECORYS, QQQ Delft, juni 2006.  

A comparison of wages in government services with those in the private sector

On the basis of administrative data files, CentERdata has established the size of the wage gap between individuals with equivalent characteristics in government employment and those employed in the corporate world.

Contact: Klaas de Vos

Each year, the government negotiates collective labour agreements with various parties. Awareness of differences in payment of government and non-government employees is of the utmost importance. This is why the Ministry of the Interior has invited CentER Applied Research to analyse the existing wage differences and developments occurring in these. These analyses greatly rely on Statistics Netherlands (CBS) data files. The research results are widely used by the Ministry and can be found, for example, in the Ministry’s annual labour market reports. 

Publications:

• Alessie, R.J.M., A.W. Hoogendoorn (1999), Een vergelijking van de lonen bij de overheid met de lonen in de marktsector A Comparison of Wages in Government Services with Wages in the Corporate World), CentER Applied Research.
• Hoogendoorn, A. (2001), Sectorale loonverschillen – een vergelijking van de lonen in de collectieve sector met de lonen in de marktsector (Sectoral Wage Differences: a Comparison of Wages in the collective sector with Wages in the Private sector), Ministerie van Binnenlandse zaken en Koninkrijksrelaties, Den Haag.

Labour market dynamics in government sectors

A micro-simulation model allowing policy simulations to be performed in 17 government sectors.

Contact: Klaas de Vos

The Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations (BZK) is responsible for outlining public officer policies. To be able to design such policies, the Ministry needs to have a sound grasp of relevant developments on the labour market. A tool for doing so is to make use of prognosis models that forecast developments on the labour market for public officers. So far the Ministry has used a relatively simple model with a restricted range of application: the AOS model. However, as the Ministry aimed to produce more accurate estimates with increasing richness of detail and wished to be able to calculate the effects of an increasing range of policy measures, it decided to instigate the development of an entirely new prognosis model for the government labour market. Such a model has meanwhile been developed and estimated by CentERdata and implemented in a user-friendly simulation programme by QQQ. This model has been baptized ‘Apollo’ and comprises a number of extensions and improvements with regard to the AOS prognosis model. Calculations, for example, no longer take place at the aggregative level but at the level of jobs and benefits. In addition, Apollo takes on board a greater number of personal and job characteristics and calculates prognoses within the context of a given economic situation. Apollo also calculates to what degree sectoral mobility takes place within the government sector and to what degree the part-time factor in a job moves up or down.

Publication:

• De Vos, K., Nelissen, J.H.M., Knoef, M.G. en Fontein, P.F. (2007), Arbeidsmarktdynamiek van de overheid, CentERdata, Tilburg. 

Does training work?

The effect of training and post-initial training on labour participation and the wage base.

Contact: Jan Nelissen

Commissioned by the Organization for Strategic Labour Market Research (OSA), we have conducted research into the effect of training – both initial (school-based programmes) and post-initial training (work-related training) – on people’s labour participation and payment. At first glance, an increase in training also appears to increase people’s participation in paid labour and their receiving higher average hourly wages. Closer analysis, however, shows that these effects are not so much a consequence of preliminary training but are mainly determined by differences in motivation, perseverance, intelligence, and social skills. Training predominantly turns out to be an instrument that makes people’s inherent aptitudes and skills pay off. People’s educational attainment level is an indication of what capacities they have. This means that level of training gives off an important signal to employers. It also means, however, that (calling for) additional training is not always useful, if motivation, perseverance, or social skills are an issue, for example. These aspects will need to be dealt with first.

Publications:

• Nelissen, J.H.M. and K. de Vos (2006), Werkt scholing? Het effect van opleiding en postinitiële scholing op de arbeidsparticipatie en de loonvoet, OSA-publicatie A291, OSA, Tilburg.

• Nelissen, J.H.M. (2007), Scholing alleen werkt niet, Economisch Statistische Berichten, 92 (4511), p. 328-331.  

Who wants to become a postman?

Contact: Jan Nelissen

Commissioned by TNT Post and in collaboration with the Organization for Strategic Labour Market Research (OSA), CentERdata has conducted research into the attractiveness of several terms of employment packages for postmen. We made use of the Vignet method, presenting combinations of potential terms of employment packages to respondents from a variety of target groups. With the aid of nested logit models, we then analysed to what extent (1) particular components of terms of employment packages (such as type of wage, wage level, working hours, pension schemes, etc.) and (2) personal characteristics influenced people’s willingness to become postmen. The report is not available to the general public.

Shift work timetable evaluation

Evaluation of a new shift timetable introduced at Trespa International B.V.

Contact:Marike Knoef

In September 2007, Trespa International B.V. submitted a questionnaire to its employees in order to evaluate the introduction of their new shift work timetable. Commissioned by Trespa International, CentERdata developed a program for processing the completed questionnaires and analysed the data generated by the questionnaires. We investigated Trespa employee views of the new timetable and the advantages and disadvantages the new timetable had for them. We also analysed inter-answer consistency: when someone was positive about one particular aspect of the new timetable, were they also positive about the other aspects? Finally, we related the employees’ background characteristics to the answers and looked at the influence of several background characteristics simultaneously. This showed us which characteristics were related to positive or negative views of the new timetable. The results gave Trespa a better understanding of what their employees think of the new timetable and the backgrounds of these views. This helps them to produce a sound evaluation.

Labour market questionnaire

Results of the labour market questionnaire presented at the RWI Conference.

Contact: Jan Nelissen

Do labour market professionals take a different view of the labour market than average Dutch individuals? Every year, the Council for Work and Income (RWI) submits a Labour Market Questionnaire to a group of labour market professionals, and, this year, it was also submitted to CentERpanel participants. This allows a comparison to be made between the Dutch population’s views of the labour market and those of labour market professionals. The results were processed by CentERdata into a research report and handed out by the RWI to conference participants after their conference, entitled Pushing and shoving.

You will find the 2008 and 2009 reports in the links below:

Report Labour Market Questionnaire 2008 (in Dutch)   

Report Labour Market Questionnaire 2009 (in Dutch)